If you are a currency trader and focus on the four major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY, then you should consider yourself a specialist in USD. Yes, its true! You are a specialist in trading the greenback.
Each currency pair actually consists of two currencies. So if you take a long position in GBP/USD then you are in fact buying British Pound and selling US Dollar. In each of the four major currency pairs, US Dollar is one currency of each pair.
This means that if you study and understand the fundamentals of US Dollar, the US economy and the workings of the Federal Reserve System, then you have done your homework needed to trade any one of the four major currency pairs.
These four major pairs are the most liquid pairs in the currency markets and involve the vast majority of the currency trading. Think like this. Majors are the most heavily traded pairs in the currency markets. US Dollar is half of each major pair so if you can understand what drives the USD, it will have a huge impact on your trading plans.
Think whether USD will weaken or strengthen in the near and medium term. The only thing you need to determine is your bias for US Dollar before trading a major. Develop a system that guides you in forming an educated bias and then apply that bias to the major currency pairs.
Just to remind you when you buy a currency pair, you are buying the first currency in the pair and selling the second currency. Suppose your form a bias that US Dollar is going to become stronger. With this bias, you can go long either on USD/CHF or USD/JPY. Similarly, you can go short either on GBP/USD or EUR/USD.
With one bias, you have the possibility of four trades. However, each currency pair will react differently to USD. Suppose Euro is also strengthening. The currency pair EUR/USD will move less with USD also strengthening. USD/JPY will move more if JPY is weakening.
You have a bearish bias for USD. Lets say you can only afford to trade one standard lot. What pair you should trade? You can consider going long on either GBP/USD or EUR/USD. Which pair you should trade!
Take a look at British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) both at the same time. You should trade the stronger currency. Find out which of the two currencies is getting stronger. You can find that by taking a look at the EUR/GBP cross charts. If the EUR/GBP cross chart is going down, it means EUR is weakening and GBP is getting stronger. You should choose GBP/USD pair for entering a trade!
You should always evaluate the currency correlations for the major currency pairs in every trading plan that you create. Correlation is determined by what is known as the correlation coefficient. Correlation coefficient always ranges between +1 and -1. The correlations between the currency pairs are dynamic and can change any time. So you need to calculate the correlations at least on weekly basis to give you a fair idea of how the correlations are changing.
Each currency pair actually consists of two currencies. So if you take a long position in GBP/USD then you are in fact buying British Pound and selling US Dollar. In each of the four major currency pairs, US Dollar is one currency of each pair.
This means that if you study and understand the fundamentals of US Dollar, the US economy and the workings of the Federal Reserve System, then you have done your homework needed to trade any one of the four major currency pairs.
These four major pairs are the most liquid pairs in the currency markets and involve the vast majority of the currency trading. Think like this. Majors are the most heavily traded pairs in the currency markets. US Dollar is half of each major pair so if you can understand what drives the USD, it will have a huge impact on your trading plans.
Think whether USD will weaken or strengthen in the near and medium term. The only thing you need to determine is your bias for US Dollar before trading a major. Develop a system that guides you in forming an educated bias and then apply that bias to the major currency pairs.
Just to remind you when you buy a currency pair, you are buying the first currency in the pair and selling the second currency. Suppose your form a bias that US Dollar is going to become stronger. With this bias, you can go long either on USD/CHF or USD/JPY. Similarly, you can go short either on GBP/USD or EUR/USD.
With one bias, you have the possibility of four trades. However, each currency pair will react differently to USD. Suppose Euro is also strengthening. The currency pair EUR/USD will move less with USD also strengthening. USD/JPY will move more if JPY is weakening.
You have a bearish bias for USD. Lets say you can only afford to trade one standard lot. What pair you should trade? You can consider going long on either GBP/USD or EUR/USD. Which pair you should trade!
Take a look at British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) both at the same time. You should trade the stronger currency. Find out which of the two currencies is getting stronger. You can find that by taking a look at the EUR/GBP cross charts. If the EUR/GBP cross chart is going down, it means EUR is weakening and GBP is getting stronger. You should choose GBP/USD pair for entering a trade!
You should always evaluate the currency correlations for the major currency pairs in every trading plan that you create. Correlation is determined by what is known as the correlation coefficient. Correlation coefficient always ranges between +1 and -1. The correlations between the currency pairs are dynamic and can change any time. So you need to calculate the correlations at least on weekly basis to give you a fair idea of how the correlations are changing.
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Discover A Revolutionary New Forex Robot. Develop your own Forex Trading System.
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